Catholic swing state voters prefer Trump by 17 points; two-thirds don't want Biden to run

By Ryan Foley, Christian Post Reporter Thursday, July 18, 2024

Catholic voters in the swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election's outcome are more likely to prefer former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden even as his support remains short of a majority, a new poll suggests.

The survey of Catholic voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin released last week was conducted on July 2 by TH2 Strategies and commissioned by the conservative advocacy organization CatholicVote. The poll was conducted before Trump, the Republican nominee for president, selected Catholic Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, as his running mate and before Trump was nearly killed in last Saturday's assassination attempt.

The survey asked 700 self-identified Catholic voters in the swing states, which boast a combined 61 votes in the electoral college, for their thoughts on the 2024 presidential election. It had a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.

A plurality of respondents (47.61%) selected Trump as their "presidential candidate preference," while 30.85% picked Biden, the presumptive Democrat nominee and a practicing Catholic.

An additional 4.36% of Catholics residing in the battleground states expressed support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., while 1.88% preferred "[a]nother 3rd party candidate" and 15.88% remain "undecided at this time."

In addition to examining Catholic voters' thoughts on the 2024 presidential election, the survey asked them, "Should Biden be running for reelection?" Biden, 81, has faced calls from Democrats to step aside and let another candidate become the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee as questions about his mental acuity and health have arisen following his performance in the June 27 televised presidential debate.

Nearly two-thirds (66.40%) said "he should not be running" while 33.60% said "he should be running."

Among those who believe Biden "should not" run for a second term, a plurality (41%) cited his "record as president" as the reason, while 27% pointed to concerns about his age. Additionally, 23.79% of those opposed to Biden running for reelection expressed concern about "decisions he might make in office," while 8% shared "concerns about him campaigning as effectively in 2024."

When respondents were divided into five categories based on their political beliefs, large majorities of all groups except those categorized as "Strong Democrat" asserted that Biden "should not be running." Even among the president's most loyal group of voters within this survey, 40% agreed that he "should not be running."

Tim Huelskamp, a former Republican congressman from Kansas who now serves as a senior political advisor to CatholicVote, notes that the "results are remarkably similar across all five states."

"It is a clear, unmistakable no: battleground Catholics do not want their fellow Catholic Joe Biden running for re-election," Huelskamp said. "Joe Biden has a Catholic problem," he added.

In an interview with The Christian Post, Huelskamp said "it seems, at times, Catholics have forgiven Joe Biden for a few things but ... two-thirds of them don't want to see him on the ballot this fall."

National exit polling from the 2020 presidential election, in which Biden defeated Trump, shows that 52% of Catholics supported Biden compared to 47% who backed Trump. Catholics comprised 25% of the electorate that year. A drop in support for Biden among Catholics and declining support among black and Hispanic voters could hamper his reelection prospects.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls measuring voter intentions in the 2024 presidential election in the five states where CatholicVote surveyed voters suggests voters in those states are leaning toward Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of polls taken in Arizona between June 11 and July 12 shows Trump beating Biden by 5.7 percentage points.

A separate polling average based on the results of surveys offering third-party candidates Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein as options increases Trump's lead to 6.4 percentage points in Arizona, which has 11 electoral college votes. In Michigan, home to 15 electoral votes, Trump leads by 1.3 percentage points in a two-way race while his lead dwindles to 0.4 percentage points in a five-way race.

In Nevada, which has six electoral votes, Trump has a lead of 5.0 percentage points in both a two-way race and a five-way race.

While Trump leads Biden by 4.5 percentage points in a two-way race in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, his lead drops to 2.8 percentage points in a five-way race. The polling average for a two-way race in Wisconsin, home to 10 electoral votes, gives Trump a lead of 3 percentage points, while a five-way race increases his lead to 3.4 percentage points.

Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: ryan.foley@christianpost.com