Kyle Kondik

Latest

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  Apr 17, 2014

  The House Retirements That 'Might' Matter in November

  The retirement of Rep. Tom Petri (R, WI-6) means that 41 members of the House are leaving the lower chamber at the end of this Congress in order to either exit public life or run for another office.

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  Feb 20, 2014

  Governors Races in 2014: Where Politics Really Is Local

  The 1974 midterm elections represented a perfect storm for Democrats. Not only had President Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace just a few months before November, but Nixon's successor — Gerald Ford — compounded Republican political problems by pardoning his old boss.

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  Feb 13, 2014

  Toward a Perfectly Partisan House in 2014

  After the 2014 election, it's possible — perhaps even likely — that there will be even fewer crossover members of the House. A quick look at the playing field explains why.

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  Dec 6, 2013

  2014 US Senate Races Remain In State of Flux

  This is the macro view of the 2014 election, which matters a lot; in the event of a wave, smaller-bore factors - like the candidates running and the campaigns themselves - can be overwhelmed. But the candidates and campaigns remain important: Just look at the Todd Akins and Richard Mourdock's of the world.

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  Nov 14, 2013

  What a Successful Mid-Term Election Will Look Like

  When the Bard of Avon wrote those words some four centuries ago, he wasn't describing Republican Senate candidates in 2010 or 2012, although the quote works well to illustrate how great opportunities can be frittered away. But now that the 2013 elections are over and the 2014 cycle is beginning to take shape, we've been thinking: What are fair expectations for both parties next year?

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  Oct 31, 2013

  The Cost of Ted Cruz's Rebellion

  Those in the political world with nothing better to do Friday night were transfixed on C-SPAN or Twitter, following along with Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-TX) speech in Des Moines to the Republican Party of Iowa. Among those were members of the hard-to-define "Republican Establishment." The best way to describe the establishment is that they are the people who think that the 87 House Republicans who voted to end the government shutdown and increase the debt limit two weeks ago cast a smart vote, as oppos

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  Aug 23, 2013

  Is Rand Paul Another Barry Goldwater?

  Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was asked recently what he would do in the event of a 2016 presidential contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). "It's gonna be a tough choice," he said with a laugh.

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  May 2, 2013

  Mark Sanford v Elizabeth Colbert Busch: A Very Special Election in South Carolina

  The circumstances in the race for South Carolina's 1st District between ex-Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), sister of comedian Stephen Colbert, are so odd that the result, no matter what it is, won't have much predictive value for next year's midterm.