Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Latest

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  Nov 23, 2015

  White Evangelicals Dominate the Election's Early Calendar

  Based on the election calendar, white evangelical Christians are going to receive ample attention early in the 2016 Republican primary.

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  Aug 16, 2015

  Republican Presidential Race: What to Do With The Donald?

  Whatever you think of him, Donald Trump is a stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond. All the boats have been rocked, and given Trump's potential for more explosiveness, the political waters show little sign of settling down anytime soon. Donald Trump is so special that we've created a category (and perhaps a word) just for him in our Republican presidential rankings: "The Un-Nominatable Frontrunner."

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  Jun 18, 2015

  President 2016: The Clash of the Bush and Clinton Dynasties

  Given that Bush, like Clinton, is not a naturally gifted speaker, we found his performance Monday to be strong. Even though he's effectively been in the race since December, it's easy to imagine that the coverage of Bush's speech and official announcement will help him get a small bump in the polls.

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  Nov 6, 2014

  Yes, The Midterm Elections Were a Wave; a GOP Tidal Wave

  It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country

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  Nov 4, 2014

  The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Election Predictions

  As is our longstanding tradition, we at the Crystal Ball attempt to call every election for House, Senate, governor, and in presidential years, the Electoral College. After studying these campaigns for months or years, we believe we owe you our best judgment about the outcomes. While we're proud of our overall record over the years, we always miss a few calls, sometimes more than a few.

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  Oct 30, 2014

  Bet On a Republican Senate Majority

  While many races remain close, it's just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber.

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  Oct 23, 2014

  Post Election Forecast for the U.S. Senate: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a GOP Majority

  With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball's outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated.

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  Sep 11, 2014

  What Is a Wave In the Senate?

  For several months, we've held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we're giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new range is a Republican net of five to eight Senate seats.

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  Jun 26, 2014

  GOP: Thank God for Mississippi

  Mississippi, a state often ignored by the national political world, managed to do something rarely seen in politics: Produce two upsets in the same race in a three-week span. And it bucked a trend of generally pathetic turnout in primaries nationwide to produce the second and then first-largest primary turnouts in the history of Mississippi Republican politics.

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  Dec 12, 2013

  Could the Budget Deal Fail?

  On Tuesday, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) announced a two-year budget agreement that could potentially offer a respite from the fiscal fights of the past few years. But many conservative House Republicans are already balking at the deal because it breaks the spending caps called for under the sequester.