14 Points on the'14 Midterm Elections
8. Worst candidates, Maryland category
There are plenty of bad candidates every year, but rarely do two of the worst candidates of the cycle not only run for the same governorship but are also members of the same party: Maryland Attorney General Doug Gansler and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown. Gansler became a laughing stock in the primary season for several mistakes, such as a nonchalant approach to underage drinking and ordering state troopers to use their sirens to get him to routine appointments. After Brown won the primary, he kicked away what should have been a slam dunk general election (with the help of Gov. Martin O'Malley's unpopularity), becoming just the third Democrat to lose an Old Line State gubernatorial election since 1966.
9. Number of crossover House districts slightly increases
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After the 2012 election, just 26 members of the U.S. House represented districts won by the other party's presidential nominee: Nine Democrats won districts carried by Mitt Romney, and 17 Republicans won districts carried by President Obama. That was the lowest number of crossover districts in any presidential election since 1920, which is a good indicator of how polarized the nation has become.
The number of crossover districts went up slightly on Nov. 4, to at least 31, though it's hard to argue that the House is really any less polarized. Rather, it's just the result of a good night for Republicans.
There will now be at least 26 Republicans in Obama seats, and probably just five Democrats in Romney seats. Many of these representatives will be on the parties' target lists for 2016, and they are listed in Table 6:
Table 6: House members in districts won by the other party's presidential nominee in 2012
This number could grow as a result of as-yet-uncalled races: Rep. Ron Barber (D, AZ-2), if he holds on, would be the sixth Democrat in a Romney seat (though he is trailing Republican Martha McSally in a race that is probably headed for a recount), while GOP challengers Doug Ose (CA-7) and Johnny Tacherra (CA-16) could add to the Republicans' crossover total.
Clearly, Republicans are now overextended in the House, and some of the seats they won this year — IA-1, NV-4, NY-24, to name a few — will be very hard to hold in the long run. But with Democrats needing to flip about 30 seats to take control of the chamber, the Republicans have built themselves a comfortable buffer.
10. Republicans win their best targets
The National Republican Congressional Committee came into this election with a focus on the "Red Zone," seven Democratic-held seats that had voted for the last three Republican presidential nominees. They succeeded in capturing four of them: open seats in NC-7 and UT-4, and the seats held by defeated Reps. John Barrow (D, GA-12) and Nick Rahall (D, WV-3). Going by 2012 presidential results, these are the four most Republican congressional districts held by the Democrats, and they are all flipping. Of the other three, the aforementioned Barber (D, AZ-2) will probably lose, while Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D, AZ-1) and Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) won.
These four confirmed Red Zone victories are especially important to Republicans because, unlike their victories in Obama districts in 2014, these are seats they should not have much trouble holding for the foreseeable future.
Peterson, whose district was won by Romney 54%-44% in 2012, now has the most Republican seat held by any Democrat. As of this writing, incoming Rep. Robert Dold (R, IL-10) — who first won in 2010, lost in 2012, and then won again this year — will hold the most Democratic seat controlled by any Republican (58%-41% Obama in 2012). However, if Tacherra completes his shocking upset against Rep. Jim Costa (D, CA-16), he will have the honor (CA-16 voted 59% to 39% for Obama in 2012).
In the Senate, Democrats were defending seven seats in states won by Mitt Romney in 2012, and the GOP swept all seven.
11. Retiring Republicans did their party a favor
Another positive for Republicans in this year's House elections — as if they needed any more — is that several of their members chose the perfect year to retire. A total of 24 House members retired this cycle, according to Roll Call's Casualty List (10 Democrats and 14 Republicans). Of those 14, the GOP retained 13, losing only Rep. Gary Miller's (R, CA-31) seat, which before Tuesday night was the most Democratic seat held by any Republican. Republicans held on to swingy seats like IA-3, MI-8, NJ-3, PA-6, and VA-10, all of which the party kept easily (each won by more than 10 points). Meanwhile, three of the 10 retiring Democrats will be replaced by Republicans in NC-7, NY-21, and UT-4.
That does not include the 11 Republican and six Democratic seats that were open because the current occupant ran for a different office. The GOP held all 11 of their seats, while Democrats lost two of theirs: IA-1, which Rep. Bruce Braley (D) gave up to mount an unsuccessful bid for Senate, and ME-2, which Rep. Mike Michaud (D) left to unsuccessfully challenge Gov. Paul LePage (R).
12. Check the final returns
Vote counting is still going on in a number of states, and the results you might have seen on Election Night might be quite different from the actual, finalized total.
For instance, on Election Night it was not at all clear that Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) would be reelected, and Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) was trailing Rep. Cory Gardner (R) by mid-single digits. But as votes in the all-mail state continued to trickle in, it became clear that
Hickenlooper was actually going to win by a bigger margin than Gardner (Hickenlooper now leads by 3.1 points, while Gardner is up by 2.2 points). Also, we wrote last week that Gov.-elect Larry Hogan (R-MD) had won by an eye-popping nine points. Well, now it's a less eye-popping 4.5 points — still impressive, but different than what the initial election night results indicated.
The lesson here for election watchers: Don't just check the results on Election Night.
13. An Alaskan oddity
On Wednesday, the AP called the Alaska Senate race for Republican Dan Sullivan over incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D), finalizing what seemed like the probable outcome on Election Night. In the Last Frontier's gubernatorial contest, incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell (R) trails independent Bill Walker, though it remains uncalled. At this point, it appears that when all the results are tallied, Parnell will join Begich as a defeated incumbent. If that's the final result, Alaska will be one of six states this year to have split results in its Senate and gubernatorial races: The others that picked different parties for Senate and governor are Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Mexico.
However, there is a difference between Alaska and every other state that featured both a Senate and gubernatorial election. As Michael Carey, a veteran journalist and one of the foremost experts on Alaska politics, noted to us earlier this week, Alaska looks to be the only state to throw out both an incumbent governor and incumbent senator this year, and from different parties to boot. That the quirky Last Frontier state is likely to be unique in this or any election should not surprise.
14. Incumbents roll once again
If Parnell loses, he'll be part of just a small group: incumbent losers. Even in a good year for Republicans, the real winners of this election are the ones who seem to be the winners in every election: incumbents.
Table 7: 2014 incumbent performance in House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections
For the purposes of this analysis, we're leaving out the races featuring incumbents where there is not a declared winner yet (one Senate race, two gubernatorial races, and four House races), but, regardless, incumbents had another good year, outperforming their post-World War II batting averages in all three categories.
Just thought we'd leave the 2014 election behind on a high note — for our readers who are incumbent politicians, at least.
