Polish psychic, polarizing televangelist: 7 people who predicted a Trump victory in 2020
Helmut Norpoth
Helmut Norpoth, professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University, predicted an election victory for Trump, having previously successfully predicted the results of the 2016 election.
Norpoth used his “Primary Model,” which looks at how candidates do in the primaries to determine general election results, to argue that Trump had a 90% chance of being reelected in 2020.
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“My first forecast was the 1996 election, the one where Bill Clinton was reelected for a second term,” explained Norpoth, as reported by Stony Brook last August. “Predicting a Clinton win was considered a stretch at the time because he was pretty bad in his first term.”
“I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests. It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”
