Bet On a Republican Senate Majority
Complicating matters are the two contests that we rate as Toss-up/Leans Runoff, meaning that we can't pick a final winner at this point because we expect overtime. In Georgia there are enough undecided voters to push either David Perdue (R) or Michelle Nunn (D) over the top on Nov. 4, but it won't be easy. Let's say for the moment that both Louisiana and Georgia go to runoff. They are red states, though the Peach State is turning plum-purple. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to expect the GOP to win at least one of these two seats (if not both) in the end. That would get the Republicans to their magic number, 51, or even 52.
Finally, there's one seat we still view as a pure toss-up: Kansas. That's not only because the race is very tight, but also because it's hard to say with which party independent Greg Orman would caucus if he defeats Sen. Pat Roberts (R). A victorious Orman is going to play the Senate version of "Let's Make a Deal," and both parties will be putting rich prizes behind Doors 1 and 2.
If we give Democrats most of the breaks in the close contests, it's certainly possible they could achieve a 50-50 Senate split, and thus a Biden majority (with the vice president breaking the tie in their favor). Yet given the fundamentals of the 2014 cycle, that outcome remains unlikely. The Republicans have more credible paths to 51 than the Democrats do to 50. This was true in January and it is still true just days from the election.
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Conclusion
Prof. James Campbell of the University at Buffalo-SUNY recently noted that in Senate races "since 1912, of the 14 midterms in a party's second presidential term or more, the out-party has gained six seats or more nearly two-thirds of the time (9 of 14)." In other words, a GOP Senate takeover in a president's sixth-year midterm would be very much in line with history — and with the roughly "two out of three" chance for a Republican majority that we have asserted for months.
Even though the GOP is poised to do well in the Senate, the party's performance probably will not qualify as a broad-based wave. Though perhaps election watchers will be surprised by the size of Republican gains on Election Night, we expect to see a kind of red-tinged "full-moon high tide" rather than a tsunami. Despite favorable conditions and a near-ideal map, Republicans have had to struggle right to the final hours to position themselves for their Senate majority. The public's unfavorable view of the GOP, which is even greater than the disgust with Democrats, will likely keep the party from achieving a true sweep — and suggests the hard work ahead by the GOP in Congress and the eventual presidential nominee in 2016.
The 2014 midterm, no matter the outcome, does not hold real predictive value for 2016. We've often compared this year with 1986, where Democrats bounced back to capture the Senate on a highly favorable map in President Reagan's "sixth-year itch" second midterm. Of course, two years later, the country elected a Republican president for the third straight time. Could the current GOP meet with a similar fate? The results next Tuesday certainly won't tell us.
Alternately, 2014 might prove to be like 2006, a great Democratic year that foreshadowed another great Democratic year. For all the legitimate talk of the Democrats' growing demographic edge in presidential elections, the advantage could be blunted by an unpopular President Obama, who like then-President George W. Bush could drag down his party in consecutive elections. Obama's approval rating is very important in the outcome of the next presidential election: If his approval rating continues to stagnate or sinks even lower, his standing will once again imperil Democrats, just as it did in 2010 and 2014. Democrats in and out of Congress will need to find ways to help Obama leave office on a high note, because their fortunes — and that of the Democratic nominee picked to succeed him — will still be linked to his.
But it's too soon for speculations about the distant future when Tuesday looms large. Check back on Monday for our final picks in Senate, gubernatorial, and House races, which will be posted both at Politico and on the Crystal Ball website.
