Analysis: Who Can Win the Presidency?
Marco Rubio
Strengths: Tied with Cruz for the highest favorability. Fundraising is strong enough to stay in the race long term (if he spends it wisely). Unlike Cruz and Trump, has broad appeal among different types of Republicans.
Weaknesses: Polling suggests he won't win any of the early states.
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To Win: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich drop out early. Stay in the race long enough win in the winner-take-all states.
Donald Trump
Strengths: Leading the polls nationally and in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Weaknesses: Favorability score (28) much lower than Cruz and Rubio. Simply put, he's not well-liked outside his base supporters.
His strongest supporters don't turn out to vote often. Every candidate must fight the free-rider problem. This struggle is greater for Trump. (The free-rider problem means people aren't likely to vote because their single vote is unlikely to make a difference in the outcome.)
While a plurality of potential voters have been willing to tell pollsters they prefer Trump, and significant numbers have shown up at his rallies to hear him speak, until the first votes are cast we won't know if Trump can successfully translate that support to the voting booth.
To Win: Convince a larger share of Republicans that he can win the general election, would govern as a conservative, and wouldn't embarrass the party or the nation if president.
Get his supporters to register to vote and turn out for their primary or caucus.
Win quickly. The opposite of Rubio, the first half of the nominating calendar is friendlier to Trump than the last half, so the quicker he can accumulate delegates, the better his chances.
Hillary Clinton
Strengths: Well liked and seen as inevitable winner among a broad base of Democrats. Leading in national polls.
Weaknesses: Supporters not as passionate as Sanders supporters. May get indicted by FBI over mishandling of classified information, which would hurt her argument that she has the best chance of winning the general election.
To Win: Don't get indicted.
Bernie Sanders
Strengths: Currently leading by 15 points in New Hampshire and tied with Clinton in Iowa.
Weaknesses: Support within the party is narrow, mostly very liberal whites. Seen as too liberal to win the general election. Will likely get clobbered by Clinton in the Southern states.
To Win: Hillary gets indicted. Democrats reluctantly decide Sanders is now their best shot at winning the general election.
Who Will Win the General Election?
Given how difficult it is for a political party to win three elections in a row, Republicans have the edge for winning the general election. However, the most important factor for predicting the general election's outcome (who the candidates are) is currently unknown.
For the Republicans, among the four viable candidates, Rubio has the best chance to win the general election.
For the Democrats, among the two viable candidates, an un-indicted Clinton has the best chance to win the general election.
