GOP Projected to Hold Majority in House
While even the most seasoned analysts are finding it hard to predict the presidential race, the projection for the Senate is that it will remain in Democratic hands, and that the House will remain Republican-controlled in January 2013.
For the last two years, the GOP has held a 25-seat advantage in the House. In order for the Democrats to gain control, they would have to win 13 seats, and that appears highly unlikely based on the predictions of leading analysts, such as at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
"While we have been saying the Republicans were heavy favorites in the House for months, this is the first time we've said definitively that they will keep the majority," wrote political analysis website Sabato's Crystal Ball House Editor Kyle Kondik, who is also the media relations coordinator for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
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"Given the topsy-turvy presidential race, it appeared in mid-September that President Obama was building a lead that might actually, through his coattails, put the House in play. But after the presidential race returned to its achingly close state, it's become clear that while individual races are fluctuating, there's not a clear wave building for either side."
Although 9 out of 10 House incumbents who want to return to Washington will do so, in the end, Democrats are projected to have a net gain of five seats.
Here are some key House races to watch in November:
Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) is a staunch conservative firebrand whose take-no-prisoner style has made him a hero among Republicans. He is entangled in a tough race that once was considered a toss-up. Now it is projected his seat will stay in GOP hands.
In heavily Democratic California, Republican Reps. Dan Lungren, Jeff Denham and Brian Bilbray find themselves in tough races that are now projected to be won by Democrats. Television advertising has been "fierce" in these races with outside groups contributing millions to the cause.
But Democrats have some of their own incumbents to protect. Democrat Rep. Kathy Hochul (N.Y.) faces a stiff challenge from ex-Erie County Executive Chris Collins, and because of the district's heavy GOP number, Collins is expected to come out on top when the polls close on Tuesday.
However, analysts agree that even if President Obama pulls off a landslide election, the odds are still low that the House will go back to Democratic control, but there is a small possibility that if Gov. Romney wins, the Senate could go to the Republican, giving the GOP control of both chambers. But that is also a long shot.
