House 2014: Handicapping the 'Drive to 245'
In this scenario, Democrats have netted just one seat. Let's now move to where the Republicans are playing offense. They have a longer list of targets, but there aren't many gimmes here, either.
We've previously listed long-serving Rep. Nick Rahall (D, WV-3) as an underdog in his coal-country seat, where Mitt Romney won 65% in 2012. We still think Rahall is in deep trouble: Democrats have had a very hard time holding seats like his in the Obama era. But we also believe that Rahall is leading at the moment. It seems unfair to the incumbent to call him an underdog when he's leading the race, so WV-3 goes back to Toss-up from Leans Republican. We're very skeptical of his ability to hold on, though.
Rahall joins a somewhat crowded — and growing — list of Democratic Toss-up seats. We now list 10 Blue seats in this category; along with Rahall, we're adding three other Democratic incumbents here, all of whom are being downgraded from the Leans Democratic category: Reps. Bill Enyart (D, IL-12), Rick Nolan (D, MN-8), and Brad Schneider (D, IL-10). Nolan, who served three terms from 1975 to 1981 before making an improbable comeback in 2012, is locked in a tough race against wealthy businessman Stewart Mills (R), and Israel singled Nolan out by name as a race he was worried about (translation: "Rick, raise more money!"). In Illinois, Democrats are worried that the struggles of Gov. Pat Quinn (D) might trickle down the ballot, and Schneider and Enyart face good Republican opponents (former Rep. Bob Dold and state Rep. Mike Bost, respectively) to boot. IL-10 has a history of backing moderate Republicans, like Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL), but at 58% Obama in 2012, it's more Democratic than any district held by any Republican across the country. IL-12, located downstate, is ancestrally Democratic but trending Republican (just 50% Obama in 2012, worse than his national average). Illinois is a very important state for Republicans in the "Drive to 245," and to add seats there, they'll have to crack a Democratic gerrymander.
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By the way, the overall map is probably getting smaller, not bigger. For instance, we're moving the open NY-4 from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic: This is a seat where Republicans could hypothetically compete, but they have been scared off by the immense resources of Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice (D). Also, Republicans had been trumpeting the candidacy of former Microsoft engineer Pedro Celis (R) against Rep. Suzan DelBene (D, WA-1) — NRCC Chairman Walden singled him out by name in a sit-down with DC reporters last week — but Celis might not even advance out of Washington's top-two primary, although many votes still remain to be counted. That race remains Safe Democratic for now.
Of the 10 Democratic-held Toss-ups — the others are AZ-1, AZ-2, CA-52, FL-26, NH-1, and NY-21 — it seems unreasonable to expect the Republicans to sweep all 10, and even if they do, that's only a nine-seat net gain based on this scenario (remember, the Democrats netted a seat out of their targets). That nine-seat gain would be outside our current projected Republican gain of five to eight seats, but short of the 11 needed to complete the "Drive to 245."
They still have other targets, just not ones we believe are Toss-ups at this stage of the game. For instance, Reps. Ami Bera (D, CA-7), Tim Bishop (D, NY-1), and John Tierney (D, MA-6) all have had tough races in the past and could drift into Toss-up territory. And Reps. John Barrow (D, GA-12), Pete Gallego (D, TX-23), Patrick Murphy (D, FL-18), and Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) all sit in districts won by Romney in 2012.
Conclusion
The "Drive to 245" will require the GOP to win about two-thirds of the most competitive races this year.
That's doable if the national winds start blowing more clearly in the Republicans' advantage, but for now we're sticking with a GOP gain of five to eight — and it's not obvious that the next revision of that range will move in the Republicans' favor. Unlike this year's Senate map, the competitive races this year are not being held on obviously Republican turf.
To put this in perspective, it's possible — though perhaps not plausible — for Republicans to net the six seats they need to flip the Senate simply by winning six Democratic-held Senate seats in six states where President Obama won less than 42% of the vote.
By contrast, President Obama's average performance in each of the 37 most competitive House seats was 49 percent in 2012, which is only a couple points less than his national average.
This presents the GOP with a challenge, but also an opportunity: The Republicans elected from these districts are generally — generally — going to be among the GOP caucus's more moderate members, assuming they want to get reelected in what probably will be better Democratic conditions in 2016. So new representatives from these districts might be good soldiers for leadership if they feel like leadership is doing things that will help them get reelected.
The battle for control of the House is basically over: Democrats just don't have the targets or the national sentiment to net the needed 17 seats to flip the chamber. A small net Democratic gain — or even a status quo election where neither side nets any seats — would be a considerable achievement for them.
But the size of the Republican majority is still up in the air, as well as whether the party can reach its small but ambitious goal — let alone get the GOP to heights in the House it has not seen since before Black Tuesday ended a seemingly permanent Republican majority more than eight decades ago.
This column originally appeared in the Center for Politics Crystal Ball.
