NASA Satellite Falling to Earth: Where Will it Hit?

By CP News Briefs, Wednesday, September 21, 2011

NASA scientists are trying to determine when and where its falling Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) will strike the Earth after it ran out of fuel in 2005.

After 20 years in space, the six-ton satellite will crash to earth some time between Thursday and Saturday, breaking into more than 100 pieces upon re-entry on Earth.

Most of it is expected to burn up but 26 of the heaviest metal pieces, equating to about 1,200 pounds of metal, is expected to hit various landing sites on the Earth’s surface.

According to NASA, there is a one in 3,200 chance that the debris, which will be scattered in an area about 500 miles wide, will hit someone.

Although the satellite is being tracked by the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, scientists still cannot determine when or where it will come down until the 20 minutes or so before it lands.

NASA's brief daily update says, "As of Sept. 20, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 127 mi by 140 mi (205 km by 225 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry. Predictions will become more refined over the next two days."

NASA’s spokesman said: “The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects.”

These days, NASA’s satellites are not built like the UARS, which is the biggest NASA spacecraft to come back in three decades. More modern satellites are designed to burn up entirely upon re-entry or fly higher into longer-term orbit.