NBA Draft 2018 News: Shooting Ability of the Michigan Wolverines' Moritz Wagner to Likely Determine His Ceiling as a Player
Wagner projects to be a stretch big in the NBA
The Michigan Wolverines' Moritz Wagner has put himself on the radars of NBA scouts and teams thanks in large part to a superb junior season.
Wagner has improved several aspects of his game, with his Sports Reference page revealing that he's become a better scorer and rebounder.
What truly sets Wagner apart from many college players though is his ability to hit from the outside.
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The 20-year-old forward hit on nearly 40 percent of the three-pointers he took this season, and if that's not remarkable enough, he did so while also launching more than 150 of those shots.
With the NBA placing greater value on shooting these days, it would seem that a big man who shoots it from deep the way Wagner does should be an easy first-round selection, but that's not how many analysts see it.
A recent Bleacher Report mock draft has Wagner going 29th overall, while one from FanRag Sports does not even have him being selected in the first round.
Those are not outliers too, as many draftniks have Wagner as a possible late first-round pick or someone who is taken early in the second round.
So, why is a big man with a valuable skill being projected in those ways?
Well, the thing is that although Wagner can shoot, there are questions about how well he can carry that skill over to the NBA.
As The Ringer noted in their draft guide, Wagner is more of a catch-and-shoot specialist, and while that is certainly acceptable for a big man, that still limits his upside somewhat. If Wagner can't show that he can also make jumpers off the dribble, then that makes him easier to defend.
Defenders are going to constantly close out hard on him in the NBA, and if he can't counter them by sidestepping with a dribble and hitting a shot or perhaps taking some steps further in and then launching, he will find it difficult to score consistently.
Because Wagner is not really the type of big man who can offer rim protection, he has to offer enough offense to make up for his shortcomings on the other end of the floor.
It's also worth keeping in mind that Wagner's free throw percentage is quite low for a player who makes a living off of being a knockdown shooter. That free throw percentage that hovers around 70 percent could be an indicator that he's not as reliable of a shooter as his three-point mark suggests and perhaps he will have more troubling converting against NBA athletes.
Wagner will need to continue honing his shot if he wants to make it to the NBA and stay there.
If there is good news for Wagner, it's that there are likely going to be teams that will take a chance on him just because of his shot. It will be up to him to make the most out of those opportunities and show that he can shoot the lights out even inside NBA arenas.
More news about other 2018 NBA draft prospects should be made available soon.
