More than 100M people of faith could sit out 2024 election: study

By Leonardo Blair, Senior Reporter Thursday, October 10, 2024

As many as 104 million people of faith, including 32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church, are unlikely to vote in the upcoming 2024 presidential election on Nov. 5 mainly due to lack of interest, research from the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University shows.

The findings of the study released Monday by longtime Evangelical pollster George Barna and his team of researchers are based on data collected in two related surveys of a national sample of 2,000 U.S. adults during August and September 2024.

One of the surveys focused on adults who self-identified as Christians and attend church at least once per month.

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Researchers found that voter enthusiasm in 2024 is significantly lower than what it was in 2020.

"The research asked people who indicated they were not likely to vote to explain the reasons for that choice. The most common reason, offered by two-thirds of the non-voters (68%), was a lack of interest in politics and elections," the researchers wrote.

Over half (57%) of the respondents in the study said they dislike all the major candidates, while 55% felt none of the candidates reflect their most important views.

At least half of all respondents also felt like their one vote wouldn't make a difference and have grown weary of the controversial nature of the voting process now.

Researchers believe that if the findings "hold true" up to election day, former President Donald Trump's reelection is less likely and Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is more likely to come away victorious.

Many Christian churches have also distanced themselves from the 2024 presidential election, the research finds, as they abstain even from encouraging their congregants to vote.

Churches and pastors can make a difference in the election, according to the researchers. Barna is encouraging churches to use their influence positively.

"Pastors often seek opportunities to have a positive influence in people's lives and upon the culture, and to help the community in which their church is located," Barna said. "This research underscores the fact that simply encouraging people to vote in order to fulfill their biblical responsibility would not only be seen as doing their job while helping the community, but an estimated five million regular churchgoers would be likely to vote as a result of that simple exhortation."

Barna said even though President Joe Biden received 7 million more votes than Trump in the 2020 election, the margin of victory in the swing states really revealed how close the race between the two candidates was.

"In 2020, the margins of victory were a combined 587,000 votes or so in nine battleground states. Cumulatively, they represented about one-fifth of the Electoral College votes — 104 out of the 538 electoral votes. You only need 270 electoral votes to win the race, yet an average gap of just 60,000 votes in each of those states determined the winner of nearly 40 percent of the total electoral votes needed to win," Barna said.

He urged church leaders and other Christian community members to engage with the political process because it's not just the presidency on the line.

"It's not only voting for the next president, but also determining who will hold many other federal, state and local offices, and what will happen with numerous referenda," Barna argued.

"In a society where a huge majority of people want their lives to make a difference, and millions of Americans lament the lack of options for making their life count, what a sterling opportunity November 5 represents," he added.

"The 32 million Christians sitting in the pews each week who refuse to vote are a gamechanger. It's low hanging fruit for pastors as they try to motivate those congregants to carry out their civic duty and honor God through their influence for things that matter in our culture."