Pavlof Volcano Erruption Imminent? Seismic Activity Increases, Alert Levels Raised
Being one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Range of the Alaska Peninsula, recent reports have claimed that the seismic activity of Pavlof Volcano had increased after its March and May eruptions.
Observatory alert level
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The recent increase of the seismic activity of the said volcano was very disturbing as it prompted the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to raise the alert level from normal to observatory. This means that the volcano had been showing signs of elevated unrest above known background level.
The steam emissions and sudden alert level increase from green to yellow suggested that a possible eruption is likely to happen again for the third time by the end of the 2016, based on the calculations of AVO.
High threat score
According to sources, with a threat score of 95, the threat from future eruptions of this volcano is considered to be high; much of this comes from the possibility of disruption of nearby air routes by large releases of ash.
The observatory noted that eruptive activity could occur with little or no warning. "Pavlof is one of those volcanoes that can erupt without very much in the way of precursory activities," geophysicist David Schneider said in an interview. "It's very easy for the magma to arise in the volcano and make it out. So even subtle signs of unrest we think it is prudent to increase our alert level."
It is said that eruptive activity is generally characterized by sporadic Strombolian lava fountaining continuing for a several-month period. Basaltic andesite with SiO2 around 53 percent is its most common lava type.
March eruption
On March 27, the Pavlov volcano had its first eruption of the year, sending an ash cloud that grew up to 37,000 feet extending 400 miles northeast, and seismic tremor remained at very high levels. The March eruption led to the cancellation of many flights, especially those crossing Alaska.
Meanwhile, the eruption last May had prompted the observatory to raise the alert from green to orange, which means that the volcano had exhibited heightened unrest with increased potential for eruption. The volcano had recorded more than 40 eruptions, and one of the most significant was this recent eruption which actually marked the first time in twenty years that ash-fall was recorded on the ground according to Alaska Dispatch News. The ash fell at Nelson Lagoon, where 39 villagers resided.
Recently, the observatory claimed that nothing has been significant recorded these past few days. Satellite images were mostly cloudy during the last 24 hours.
