Republican Presidential Race: What to Do With The Donald?
But each of these five candidates has the potential ability to rally enough support — electoral and monetary — so that he ends up carrying the GOP banner into the 2016 general election.
Our trio of top candidates remains unchanged — we've long had Bush, Walker, and Rubio in some order in the first tier of Republican contenders.
To those three we have added Cruz and Kasich as the other top-tier Republican options. To be clear: Both are behind the top three in our eyes, but we also think they stand above much of the rest of the field. An unlikely Cruz nomination would represent a triumph of the most conservative elements of the party, while an unlikely Kasich nomination would mean a win for the party's least conservative voters. Given Sen. John McCain's (AZ) nomination in 2008 as a favorite of the party's left and middle — plus former Gov. Mitt Romney's (MA) primary triumph four years later — Kasich's path has more historical precedent than Cruz's. On the other hand, the GOP base has moved substantially to the right in recent years.
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Cruz is unapologetically conservative on a range of issues, and his uncompromising profile may be problematic in a general election. But there's little question that his attitudes jibe with the views of many potential Republican primary and caucus voters. Should Bush, Rubio, and/or Walker have problems, one can see a path for Cruz. His campaign and Super PAC surrogates have raised more money than anyone not named Bush in the GOP field, and Cruz is one of the better speakers and debaters in the field.
Similarly, should the Republican establishment find itself in a crisis because some or all of the top three don't prove their mettle on the campaign trail, Kasich has the profile of someone who could step into the void: He is governor of crucial swing state Ohio; he combines a relatively conservative record with a moderate-sounding outlook; and his campaign and its allies have the potential fundraising ability to bankroll a serious bid.
We saw on Thursday night how one or more of our top three contenders could stumble. There were very mixed reviews of the Republican debate, often with conflicting analyses about who really performed well or poorly. Bush and Walker earned criticism for being bland and invisible at times. Neither was brilliant, but perhaps their blasé night was in part a result of being on the same stage as Trump and having more to lose than win from standing out. Rubio received lavish praise for his performance, though a debate with 10 people, one of them Trump, naturally produces memory fog.
Still, Bush hasn't looked comfortable in the spotlight in recent weeks, struggling to deal with questions about foreign policy and women's health. At the same time, some observers see him shifting to the rightto shore up his conservative bona fides. He remains vulnerable to right-leaning attacks on Common Core and immigration policy, not to mention the legacy burden attached to yet another Bush White House candidacy.
All in all, Bush has work to do. While it's a fool's errand to overemphasize early polling toplines, Bush's second-place position behind Trump in the New Hampshire primary polling average (and narrow lead over Kasich and Walker) differentiates him from Mitt Romney: According to RealClearPolitics' list of polls, the 2012 Republican nominee never trailed in the Granite State. Bush's early strategy largely rests on winning New Hampshire while performing credibly in Iowa. But at the moment, it's obvious that he lacks a firewall — Florida is not scheduled to vote until March 15, so it's not among the early states — making him a weaker frontrunner than Romney despite the massive war chest Bush has at his disposal.
