Can Republicans Take Back Control of The Senate?
New polling shows that the Republicans hold a slight edge over Democrats in enough key midterm Senate races to give the GOP control of the Senate.
With Republicans needing to take back six seats from Democrats to win back the majority in the Senate, A New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online survey of more than 100,000 likely voters, finds that Republican challengers hold leads in eight states for Senate seats currently held by Democrats, and no Democrats are leading in a state currently held by a Republican.
Although YouGov's survey still forecasts very tight contests and there are currently 10 races determined by no more than six percentage points, The New York Time's Upshot forecast has a 61 percent chance of a GOP-controlled Senate. FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website, predicts that Republicans to have a 65.1 percent chance of winning back control of the Senate.
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"Republicans can win the Senate solely by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, states which voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an average of 19 percentage points in 2012," FiveThirtyEight.com blog founder Nate Silver wrote.
One Republican Party advantage lies in the fact that four Democratic Senators are retiring. The GOP is favored to win three of those seats back, and winning the fourth seat is not out of the party's reach, although the GOP is currently behind in that Iowa Senate race.
In West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota, states that all have Democrat senators retiring, the YouGov poll of likely voters has the Republican candidates currently in the lead by considerable margin. Montana and West Virginia appear to be two seats that are almost surely locks to be won by the GOP with Republicans Steve Daines and U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito having respectable leads against their Democratic challengers.
In South Dakota where Sen. Tim Johnson announced his retirement, Republican Mike Rounds was once a lock to win the seat having a 61 percent to 34 percent lead in July. But in YouGov's latest poll, Rounds' lead has shrunk due to the inclusion of an independent candidate who is the former South Dakota Republican Senator, Larry Pressler. Although Pressler could steal some of Rounds' conservative votes come election time, Rounds still holds a 13 percentage point advantage over Democrat Rick Weiland's in South Dakota.
In Iowa where Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin announced his retirement, the YouGov poll shows the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, holding only a slim two percentage point lead over Republican challenger Joni Ernst.
In states such as Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, the Democrat incumbents could be in serious danger of losing their jobs according to the YouGov poll.
In Alaska, Sen. Mark Begich finds himself six percentage points behind the Republican challenger, former Attorney General Dan Sullivan. In Arkansas, Sen. Mark Pryor is four points behind Republican challenger Tom Cotton in the YouGov poll and five points behind in an NBC News/Marist poll. In Louisiana, Sen. Mary Landrieu is two percentage points behind her Republican challenger Bill Cassidy.
In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan is holding a slight one percentage point lead over her GOP challenger Thom Tillis.
