What Is a Wave In the Senate?
Despite the seeming closeness of the races in Michigan and New Hampshire, we still like the Democrats' chances in those places — barring a significant downturn for the party nationally. We went out on a limb in late July by dubbing Minnesota a sleeper and moving it from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, and yet Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) retains a bigger lead than Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in states where the Democrats are at Likely Democratic in our ratings. If Mike McFadden (R-MN), Franken's opponent, doesn't get moving soon, we'll obviously reassess and upgrade Franken.
We remain confident of GOP holds in Georgia and Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in particular seems to be moving further into the clear in a race we've called Likely Republican for the entire cycle. Kansas is a big question mark: Since we updated the race last week, it appears that former Democratic candidate Chad Taylor might have to stay on the ballot. That hurts independent Greg Orman, although Taylor's level of support should dwindle. In any event, a primary-weakened Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) remains a small favorite but he and his GOP allies are in for quite a fight.
Likely Republican pickups in Montana and West Virginia are closer to moving to the Safe column than the more competitive Leans category. The same can be said on the Democratic side in Oregon and Virginia, where incumbent Democrats have big leads. Finally, in South Dakota, Republicans remain on track for a pickup, although former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is polling well under 50% in a three-way field.
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P.S. A note on the governors
Even as we have slightly downgraded Democratic chances in the Senate, their chances have improved in a couple of blue state gubernatorial races.
Hawaii: While unpopular Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) might have been in serious trouble in the general election, state Sen. David Ige (D) crushed the incumbent in a record-setting primary win. What is Ige's most important attribute in his matchup with former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R)? His party label, in a very Democratic state. Although former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, an ex-Democrat running as an independent, complicates the race to some degree, Hannemann's candidacy loses some of its raison d'être with Abercrombie out of the picture. With the relatively undefined Ige as the Democratic nominee, the state seems more likely to stick to its partisan guns, making Aiona at least a slight underdog at this point in the campaign. In light of this, we're shifting this contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Still, this won't be a cakewalk for Democrats, and the flush-with-cash Republican Governors Association could intervene here in a big way, forcing the Democratic Governors Association to counter.
Michigan: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) holds what has been an ever-shrinking polling lead over former Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in the Wolverine State's gubernatorial matchup. Snyder's party identification may well be weighing him down in a state where President Obama won at least 54% in both his election wins. While Snyder holds a small lead, Rep. Gary Peters (D) is ahead of former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) in the state's Senate contest. Considering our Likely Democratic rating in the Senate race, Peters may help pull Schauer's numbers up in the Democratic-tilting state, so we're moving the Snyder-Schauer contest from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Because of the power of incumbency and his financial advantages, Snyder is still in a somewhat better position than Schauer to win, but it's quite close and the undecided voters here are friendlier to Democrats than in some other states. Meanwhile, to the west, we're not quite ready to move the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Toss-up yet, but Gov. Scott Walker's (R-WI) Leans Republican rating is very shaky.
Want another argument for why this may not really be a Republican wave year? More Republican than Democratic gubernatorial incumbents may lose, although we admitted earlier that contests for governor are different animals.
See Table 3 here.
