Wisconsin Exit Poll Favoring Obama May Have Flaws
A Wisconsin exit poll cited by Democrats nationwide as reason why President Obama is still in the safe zone in November may have serious flaws, according to polling experts. Sean Trende, a well-known polling analyst, asserts that in order for the seven point Obama lead to be true, more Republicans needed to have expressed preference for the president than Democrats for GOP candidate Mitt Romney and the president should have taken independents by a 60-40 margin.
"This is inconsistent with what we've seen in just about every poll of the race between Romney and the president, who currently sports a 41 percent approval rating among Independents. This isn't to say it's possible that he'd be leading in an electorate with more Republicans than Democrats, but it is something of a red flag," Trende writes in a RealClear Politics analysis.
There is no question the presidential election in November between Obama and Romney will be close. In fact, the bigger issue among most political pundits now is not how tight the race may be, but which swing states will have the more significant role in determining the outcome. Wisconsin will certainly have at least the part of a supporting actor in the one-day performance this November.
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Yet the question remains, how did a large portion of voters who just confirmed their incumbent Republican, Gov. Scott Walker, by a seven-point margin then turn around and give President Obama – who did not campaign in support of Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democratic nominee – a seven-point lead over Romney?
Trende and others such as conservative columnist John Nolte of Breitbart.com make the case that not only was the exit polling flawed, but they also point out that the "mainstream media" seemingly did not question how the exit numbers could swing so far in the opposite direction.
"Not only was the MSM (mainstream media) giddy over the idea Walker might lose, but they then drip-drip-dripped all the internal numbers that spelled gloom and doom for our side," wrote Nolte on Breitbart.com. "But the number the media was most excited to share was that exit polls showed Obama beating Romney in Wisconsin by seven points. ABC News says nine…Yes, the media is still quoting exit polls that couldn't even get the main event correct."
But a closer look at how the exit poll was conducted may reveal how the numbers could have been so far off.
First, most reputable polling firms will word a question with the actual candidates as a choice, but also give the participants the option of saying "Don't know," which is a truthful response for many given there are more than 150 days before voters actually have to make up their minds. The Wisconsin exit poll only gave voters three options: Obama, Romney or not vote.
Next, when three different pollsters asked voters whom they were supporting in the recall race before Election Day, Walker was leading Barrett, by a margin of 5 to 6.5 percent. Walker ended up winning the race by seven points.
When these same voters were polled about an Obama-Romney matchup, Obama had a five-point lead. Assuming the pollsters missed the recall election by a couple of percentage points, one might assume Obama would only have a three-point lead.
Trende summarizes that those conducting the exit polls must have missed a significant number of Walker supporters in order to arrive at numbers showing Obama with such a commanding lead.
"Of course, none of this is definitive proof, and I don't want to overstate my case here," Trende writes. "The exit poll might well be correct. If the president is doing this well against Romney in a Republican-leaning electorate, the Republicans really are pretty well doomed there in the fall. But there are real reasons to question whether he really is doing that well in Wisconsin right now."
Nolte on the other hand, was a bit more direct in his accusation that the "mainstream media" is still firmly on Obama's side and wanting to bend the numbers in order to make the case that many Democrats are still excited about their nominee.
"The media will tell you that the exit polls have been adjusted since they were first released, but adjusted crap is still crap, noted Nolte. You see what they're doing here? 2012 will hinge on turnout, especially in swing states such as Wisconsin, and the media doesn't want the supporters of Their Precious One demoralized."
Yet one thing is certain, the race is close; it has been for several months and barring some unforeseen event that will tilt it one way or the other, it will probably be even closer on Election Day.
The most recent polls conducted by Rasmussen and Gallup on June 4-10, now show Romney with a one to three point lead over Obama. And more than likely those numbers will flip a few more times before voters weigh in on the poll that matters.
