Hurricane Season 2017 Predictions, Forecast: Above-Normal Hurricane Season to Bring No More Than Nine Hurricanes, Experts Say
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year.
According to NOAA, the warmth of sea surface temperatures along with a weak to non-existent El Niño is expected to result in an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, which could consist of five to nine hurricanes, with two to four possibly major ones. This forecast also predicts the possibility of 11 to 17 named storms throughout the season, which begins on Thursday, June 1.
NOAA has already recorded one tropical storm over the north-central Atlantic back in April. Tropical Storm Arlene was only the second storm to have been named for that said month.
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Moreover, this season also marks the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which is considered as one of the most devastating storms in history. The devastation it brought was also due to the fact that it came during a below-average season, and was thus basically unexpected.
Experts advise residents to learn from Hurricane Andrew and make contingency plans for dealing with every possible worst case scenario that might occur.
However, other forecasts, specifically one that came from experts at the Colorado State University, have predicted slightly below-average activity, which could be marked with 11 named storms, and four hurricanes with two possibly major ones. This particular forecast was made in early April following a forecast of a weak to moderate El Niño possibly developing during the peak of the upcoming hurricane season. An updated hurricane season forecast from this source is expected to be released on June 1.
On average, a hurricane season usually brings about six hurricanes and reaches its peak in around August and September, according to USA Today. A tropical storm with a wind speed of 39 mph can eventually turn into a hurricane when it reaches a wind speed of around 74 mph. On the other hand, strong El Niños and wind shear can typically suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes.
