GOP: Thank God for Mississippi
(7) There are intriguing "what ifs" in those other races: What if, say, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) had gone after his shadow foe from his 2010 primary, McConnell, and campaigned against the minority leader with his own candidate instead of providing him lukewarm support? Or suppose Cornyn had been opposed by a more credible candidate than outgoing Rep. Steve Stockman (R, TX-36)? If Graham had faced one of the Tea Party congressmen in his state's delegation, he might have been forced into a runoff at the least. Perhaps the incumbent record would not be spotless.
(8) But this also hints at a bigger challenge for outsider forces in the Republican Party. The incumbents - at least the skilled ones - can co-opt their opponents and dissuade potential challengers from running. They work hard to keep the "what ifs" purely theoretical. Look at the recent vote for House majority leader: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-23) orchestrated his contacts and called in his favors, making clear to possible opponents that he was going to win the job. The outsider Tea Party congressman who did challenge him, Rep. Raul Labrador (R, ID-1), openly disdained the insider politicking required to grab a job like House majority leader. Unless he acquires some of McCarthy's skill set, he'll remain a lonely voice. Anti-establishment forces can learn organizational lessons from the insiders they are trying to replace.
This remarkable race reminds us that every campaign is different, and sometimes a campaign can turn out to be unique. Incumbents who fall behind in the first primary rarely resurge in the runoff. Turnout usually falls in the runoff compared to the initial primary. A short runoff campaign often aids the candidate with momentum, the one who fared better than expected in the first primary. None of these things occurred in the 2014 Mississippi GOP Senate contest. The voters turned the gloom-and-doom pre-election analysis about Cochran's impending demise on its head.
Get Our Latest News for FREE
Ratings change
With Cochran's win, we are moving Mississippi back to Safe Republican for the November general election.
Cochran can go out on his own terms
Since the start of popular elections for Senate a century ago, 140 senators have won at least four consecutive Senate elections for the same seat (regular or special). Of these, Cochran narrowly avoided becoming the 27th to exit the Senate after losing in a primary or general election. Thus, about one-fifth (19%) of these long-serving senators were ultimately rejected by voters. While it looks like Cochran will remain for a seventh term, three of his fellow Senate lions - Sens. Tom Harkin (D-IA), Carl Levin (D-MI), and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) - are retiring at the end of the current Congress.
Other contests
Here are some takeaways from the five other states that had noteworthy contests on Tuesday night:
Colorado: National Republicans feared that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), known mostly as a hawk on immigration issues, would win the GOP nomination to oppose Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in the fall. Tancredo's third-party bid in 2010 - he ended up getting 36% of the vote, much more than the actual Republican nominee - doomed GOP prospects here four years ago. But Tancredo lost to former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R), more of an establishment favorite. Beauprez is an underdog in this Leans Democratic race, and it's not like he's an obviously great candidate: He lost by 17 points to former Gov. Bill Ritter (D) in the 2006 gubernatorial race. But he's less of a lightning rod than Tancredo, which arguably could be helpful to other Colorado Republicans on the ballot, and he also has a fighting chance at an upset if conditions merit.
We mentioned last week that Rep. Doug Lamborn (R, CO-5) could potentially face some trouble in his primary against Bentley Rayburn (R), a retired Air Force general and past Lamborn foe. Sure enough, Lamborn only won with 52.5% of the vote. Mitt Romney won 59% of the vote in this district in 2012, so it shouldn't be as competitive in the general election. Meanwhile, earlier this year Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4) pushed 2010 Senate nominee Ken Buck (R) out of the Senate race against Sen. Mark Udall (D). Buck moved down to compete for Gardner's open House seat, and he easily won the primary. He's a favorite to be elected in the fall in another 59% Romney district.
Florida: The Republican House caucus is back up to its full strength of 234 members after businessman and now-Rep. Curt Clawson (R, FL-19) easily won a special election. He replaces former Rep. Trey Radel (R), who resigned the seat after he was caught buying cocaine from an undercover federal agent. There are now two vacancies in the House in safe Democratic seats: NC-12 and NJ-1.
Maryland: As expected, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (D) easily romped to the Democratic nomination for governor in the Old Line State. Winning over a majority (51%), he more than doubled each of the vote totals of his main rivals, Attorney General Doug Gansler (24%) and state Delegate Heather Mizeur (22%). While Gansler had long trailed in the polls, it's got to rankle him that Mizeur nearly equaled his vote total despite Gansler raising and spending millions more. Larry Hogan (R), a former Cabinet secretary with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich, won the Republican nomination with 43% of the vote. Brown will be a heavy favorite in the general election and will be positioned to make some history: Should he win, Brown will become only the third elected black governor in American history, following in the footsteps of former Gov. Doug Wilder (D-VA), who won his lone term in 1989, and Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), who was first elected in 2006 and is not running for reelection this year.
New York: The action here was in the House, and the takeaway is that Washington Republicans - just like in Mississippi - got the results they wanted.
On Long Island, state Sen. Lee Zeldin (R) handily defeated self-funder George Demos (R), a former Securities and Exchange Commission prosecutor, for the right to face Rep. Tim Bishop (D, NY-1) in this very competitive district. We're calling this race Leans Democratic but it might be a Toss-up in the fall: Bishop handily beat Zeldin in more optimal conditions in 2008, but expect a tighter contest this time.
Upstate, former Bush administration aide Elise Stefanik (R) beat 2010 and 2012 nominee Matt Doheny (R) for the right to take on documentary filmmaker Aaron Woolf (D) in an open North Country seat currently held by retiring Rep. Bill Owens (D, NY-21). This is a Toss-up race but in a year like this one Republicans should ultimately feel a bit better about their prospects than Democrats. Just south of that district, moderate Rep. Richard Hanna (R, NY-22) held on 53% to 47% against Tea Party Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney (R) in another race we flagged last week. Both Stefanik and Hanna were the beneficiaries of lavish outside spending from establishment-oriented Republican groups.
On the Democratic side, long-serving Rep. Charlie Rangel (D, NY-13) has once again shown himself to be a survivor: Rangel edged state Sen. Adriano Espaillat (D) in a rematch from 2012. Rangel has said this will be his last election. And in the open NY-4, where Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) is retiring, Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice defeated Nassau County Legislative Minority Leader Kevan Abrahams in the Democratic primary, while former Nassau County Legislature Presiding Officer Bruce Blakeman defeated attorney Frank Scaturro on the Republican side. Rice, one of the most impressive House fundraisers in the country even as a non-incumbent, is a big favorite in November in a Likely Democratic district that is close to moving off the competitive board.
Oklahoma: Many analysts, including the Crystal Ball, thought there was a decent chance that the special GOP Senate primary battle between Rep. James Lankford (R, OK-5) and ex-state House Speaker T.W. Shannon (R) would go to a runoff. Polling seemed to suggest a close race, and five other candidates promised to get at least some portion of the vote, potentially keeping everyone below 50%. However, Lankford ended up winning his party's nomination comfortably, garnering 57% of the vote to beat Shannon by about 24 points on primary night. In the special Democratic Senate primary, state Sen. Connie Johnson and 2010 nominee Jim Rogers advanced to an Aug. 26 runoff; no matter which Democrat wins, Lankford will be a safe bet for victory in November.
In other Sooner State contests, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) easily won renomination in the state's regular GOP Senate primary and will be an overwhelming favorite to win reelection against financial planner Matt Silverstein (D). In OK-5, the six-person Republican field battling to succeed Lankford saw Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas and ex-state Sen. Steve Russell advance to the August runoff, with the winner essentially assured a seat in the House of Representatives.
The power of congressional incumbency
As mentioned above, the 275 House incumbents who have sought renomination, 273 have successfully moved on to the general election. Excluding incumbents from California, with its top-two blanket primary system, only 14 of 228 incumbents (including the two losers, Republican Reps. Eric Cantor of Virginia and Ralph Hall of Texas) have failed to win at least 60% in their primaries or runoffs. If we include any California incumbent who faced at least one other member of his/her party during the primary, only 102 of 275 incumbents have had any same-party opposition in their renomination battles.
This column was originally published on Politico Magazine and on Sabato's Crystal Ball.
